27 January 2015

Prelude to 2015 forecast - how accurate was the 2014 forecast?

I would say not bad. I made some mistakes (on investments) but on the whole, the main predictions were more or less on the spot. Below are the highlights. 

"... lots of air and water disasters (travel incidents related to air and sea, explosions, etc). This might involve lots of casualties ..."

When I wrote this in December 2013, I thought it was going to be bad but reality turned out to be far worse than what I imagined. The South Korean ferry disaster and all the airplane disasters. So many lives lost. So many families affected. It's been heart-wrenching watching it. 

"... consumer confidence will return, consumer optimism will return ..."
I think lots of us have forgotten just how dismal and bleak it's been the past couple of years but in 2014 we saw a marked improvement in people's perception of the economy.  

"... the stock market could reach a high ... "
And it did. The London FTSE reached a 14 year high in September. The NASDAQ hit it's best level since March 2000 in August 2014. The Dow Jones also reached it's 7th fastest 1,000 point gain in it's history. 

What I didn't account for though was the inherent instability and turbulence of the horse's energy which also meant huge dips in these indices as well. Something to note for the future. 

"The job market could start flourishing again, especially after July so jobless graduates or those made redundant, hold on for a little while longer. The market will start moving again. ..."
The US market released a rosy report on the job market with over 280,000 jobs added to the market in June 2014 and there was a strong market rebound in the UK as well with unemployment rate falling to a 5 year low. 

"... Agriculture will be good this year. The harvest will be plentiful... ideal weather for crops ..."
This is an excerpt from Morning Star on the best performing stocks for the year ... "Thanks to near-perfect farming conditions and a lack of natural disasters this harvest is set to be a bumper one for both the US and Europe ..."

That's all.

"... It will get warmer and flooding will stop proving to be a problem ... "
Well, that was an understatement. 2014 turned out to be earth's warmest year on record. I do believe 2015 might surpass this though. We'll see. 

" ... lots of romantic dalliances and sex scandals in the news this year"
The year started off with Francois Hollande's affair and ended with the allegations against Bill Cosby. And peppered in between there were Gary Glitter, Rolf Harris, Max Clifford, etc. 

" ... Property prices will see a recovery (as fire and earth are strong in the chart) ..."
This was definitely the case for the UK. 

You can read the full 2014 report here. I promise the 2015 forecast will follow soon.

11 January 2015

Ba Zi (Chinese fortune-telling) - a personal story

Last year, I quit my job.

Now, I'm usually a very practical person and very responsible but last year, I couldn't bring myself to stay on at my well-paying job. It just felt impossible. So I quit and my last day was September and for months, it's been absolute bliss. It was what I needed. I tried to be responsible and apply for new jobs immediately upon quitting but honestly, my heart wasn't in it. I couldn't muster enthusiasm for some of the jobs and for others, even when the interview went really well and good money was on the table, I couldn't bring myself to accept it. All I wanted to do was rest and relax after 7 years in a highly-stressed environment.

This again seemed very unlike me.

I remember showing my Grandmaster my chart and he immediately showed me why it was that I quit this year. I was so surprised. Sometimes you can spot things in other people's charts but you miss out so much of your own. And he mentioned that it's going to be hard for me to get my act together in 2014. That instead there was a high chance I'd get a good job in 2015 instead. I should have asked him when of course. Missed my chance. So now all I can do is hope something turns up.

With regards to the forecast for 2015, I have done it. There's a 10 page PDF circulating with my clients and friends. If you would like a copy, just send me a message and I'll email it to you. I'll try and post a summary on the blog as well.

Happy 2015