27 January 2015

Prelude to 2015 forecast - how accurate was the 2014 forecast?

I would say not bad. I made some mistakes (on investments) but on the whole, the main predictions were more or less on the spot. Below are the highlights. 

"... lots of air and water disasters (travel incidents related to air and sea, explosions, etc). This might involve lots of casualties ..."

When I wrote this in December 2013, I thought it was going to be bad but reality turned out to be far worse than what I imagined. The South Korean ferry disaster and all the airplane disasters. So many lives lost. So many families affected. It's been heart-wrenching watching it. 

"... consumer confidence will return, consumer optimism will return ..."
I think lots of us have forgotten just how dismal and bleak it's been the past couple of years but in 2014 we saw a marked improvement in people's perception of the economy.  

"... the stock market could reach a high ... "
And it did. The London FTSE reached a 14 year high in September. The NASDAQ hit it's best level since March 2000 in August 2014. The Dow Jones also reached it's 7th fastest 1,000 point gain in it's history. 

What I didn't account for though was the inherent instability and turbulence of the horse's energy which also meant huge dips in these indices as well. Something to note for the future. 

"The job market could start flourishing again, especially after July so jobless graduates or those made redundant, hold on for a little while longer. The market will start moving again. ..."
The US market released a rosy report on the job market with over 280,000 jobs added to the market in June 2014 and there was a strong market rebound in the UK as well with unemployment rate falling to a 5 year low. 

"... Agriculture will be good this year. The harvest will be plentiful... ideal weather for crops ..."
This is an excerpt from Morning Star on the best performing stocks for the year ... "Thanks to near-perfect farming conditions and a lack of natural disasters this harvest is set to be a bumper one for both the US and Europe ..."

That's all.

"... It will get warmer and flooding will stop proving to be a problem ... "
Well, that was an understatement. 2014 turned out to be earth's warmest year on record. I do believe 2015 might surpass this though. We'll see. 

" ... lots of romantic dalliances and sex scandals in the news this year"
The year started off with Francois Hollande's affair and ended with the allegations against Bill Cosby. And peppered in between there were Gary Glitter, Rolf Harris, Max Clifford, etc. 

" ... Property prices will see a recovery (as fire and earth are strong in the chart) ..."
This was definitely the case for the UK. 

You can read the full 2014 report here. I promise the 2015 forecast will follow soon.

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